Can Intuitive Machines Pull a Rigetti? What It Would Take for LUNR Stock to Reach $50 a Share

10/20/2025

Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) has already made history once. In 2024, its Nova-C lander became the first U.S. spacecraft to achieve a soft lunar landing since Apollo. That single success pushed the company from speculative startup to serious contender in the emerging space infrastructure race.

Now, investors are asking a simple question: could LUNR be the next Rigetti Computing (RGTI)? After all, Rigetti’s stock exploded from around $14 to $50 almost overnight. The move was fast, dramatic, and almost entirely fueled by hype around quantum computing. Both companies sit in early-stage, high-potential industries - but their paths to $50 are very different.

LUNR vs. RGTI: Two Different Kinds of Moonshots

Category	Intuitive Machines (LUNR)	Rigetti Computing (RGTI)
Sector	Lunar infrastructure and transportation	Quantum computing hardware and software
Catalyst Type	Tangible – proven mission success, NASA contracts	Narrative – quantum hype and speculative excitement
Core Milestone	Successful lunar landing in 2024	Claimed quantum breakthroughs in chip design
Funding Source	NASA CLPS + commercial payload clients	Private investment and retail trading momentum
Market Psychology	“Space takes time” – long development cycles	“Quantum is the next AI” – fast hype cycles
Execution Risk	High – physical mission failure risk	High – technology risk but fewer total failures
Valuation Driver	Recurring contracts and in-space services	Future potential and valuation multiple expansion

Rigetti’s rise was a classic case of speculative momentum. The company caught fire after releasing updates about its quantum chip architecture, and traders piled in expecting a new wave of AI-adjacent innovation. LUNR, on the other hand, doesn’t live off hype. Its growth story depends on successful hardware launches, stable government contracts, and expanding lunar services. In short: Rigetti sold the dream. Intuitive Machines has to build it.

What Needs to Happen for LUNR to Reach $50

To match Rigetti’s move, Intuitive Machines must turn its historic landing into a repeatable business model. That means stacking mission successes, securing multi-year contracts, and reducing the perception of “space risk.”

1. Multiple successful lunar missions

The company has to prove reliability, not luck. Two or more flawless missions in the next two years could shift market perception from “speculative” to “established.”

2. Revenue acceleration

A run rate of $400–500 million with improving margins would justify a $25–30 share price. Crossing $700 million with consistent profitability could support $50.

3. Expansion beyond NASA

Long-term growth depends on recurring commercial revenue from lunar data relay, propulsion, and in-space communications, not just CLPS missions.

4. Sector momentum

If “lunar economy” or “space infrastructure” becomes the next hot narrative, valuation multiples could expand dramatically. RGTI’s rally proved that sentiment alone can move mountains - or moons.

5. Smart capital strategy

Avoiding shareholder dilution is key. If LUNR can fund growth through contract revenue instead of constant equity raises, the share count stays tight and upside per share remains intact.

6. Institutional recognition

Inclusion in aerospace or innovation ETFs (like ARKX or UFO) could provide liquidity and visibility, just as Rigetti benefitted from speculative inflows.

The Math Behind $50

At roughly 48 million shares outstanding, a $50 target implies a market cap near $2.4 billion. Here’s what that could look like:

Scenario	Revenue	Profit Margin	Valuation Multiple	Price Estimate
Current (2025)	~$230M	Negative	n/a (2.5x sales)	$13
Mid-Term (2026)	~$400M	5%	120×	$25–30
Long-Term (2030)	~$700M	10%	35×	$45–50
Speculative Hype	~$400M	breakeven	150–200×	$50+ (short-term spike)

Fundamentally, the path to $50 is a mix of execution and excitement. Without mission success, no valuation model will matter. However, if the company can deliver repeatable results and ride a new wave of investor enthusiasm around commercial lunar development, the story changes quickly.

Bottom Line

Rigetti’s climb to $50 was powered by narrative. Intuitive Machines will have to earn it through execution. Its upside is real, but so are the challenges: capital intensity, technical risk, and a market that only rewards consistent proof of success.

Still, as a first mover with NASA support and a growing commercial manifest, LUNR remains one of the most intriguing speculative plays in aerospace. Rigetti soared because of imagination. If Intuitive Machines keeps landing on the Moon, its stock might one day do the same.

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Note: This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. BFG Wealth Management and/or its clients may hold positions in companies mentioned at the time of this article. Consult with a financial advisor for personalized guidance.

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